Misconception about running it twice

There is a misconception that running it twice gives the hand that is behind in equity two chances to improve their hand. This is incorrect. Running it twice helps you realize your equity better than running it once.

Running it twice or more times is a 0EV move. This means it doesn’t affect your Expected Value whatsoever. So from a math standpoint, it doesn’t matter if you run it once, twice, three, or fifty times.

Running it twice is simply a tool to reduce variance.

The problem with running it twice is that it slows the game down and you end up seeing less total hands.

By definition

Variance (of a discrete random variable)

A measure of spread for a distribution of a random variable that determines the degree to which the values of a random variable differ from the expected value.

The variance of random variable X is often written as Var(X) or σ2 or σ2x.

For a discrete random variable the variance is calculated by summing the product of the square of the difference between the value of the random variable and the expected value, and the associated probability of the value of the random variable, taken over all of the values of the random variable.

In symbols, Var(X) = (x – µ)2 P(X = x)

In a simple example:

In a 100 dollar pot:
probability of winning 90%

E(x)= 0.9(100)
E(x)= 90

Running it 5 times
E(x)= 0.9(20)+0.9(20)+0.9(20)+0.9(20)+0.9(20)
E(x)= 18+18+18+18+18
E(x)= 90

Given that this is 0EV move, the decision to run it depends only in your desire to reduce variance or not.

MIT’s Opencourseware white paper regarding variance of discrete distributions.

Running it Twice: The Ultimate Guide

Uber Background Check

To become an Uber driver, you must consent to allow Uber to run a background check and driving record check.

The Uber background check looks at these records

  • County courthouse records for every county of residence for the last 7 years
  • Federal courthouse records going back 7 years
  • The multi-state criminal database going back 7 years
  • Motor Vehicle Records
  • Social Security Trace
  • National Sex Offender Registry

Uber background check and driving record check criteria
Your background must meet these conditions:

  • A minimum of 1 year U.S. licensing history (if under 23 years old, must have at least 3 years licensing history).
  • A clean Motor Vehicle Report (MVR) with no more than 3 incidents in the past 3 years.
  • No DUIs and no reckless driving.
  • California Uber drivers must not have a DUI in the last 10 years.
  • A clean criminal background check with no felonies or misdemeanors involving theft, violence or drugs in a given time frame.
  • No speeding violations for driving 20 mph or greater over the speed limit in the past 3 years.
  • Uber does not perform a credit check

Uber uses a company called Checkr to perform the background checks.

Read a complete article @




Abraham Lincoln, The Great Centralizer

A more appropriate title for Abraham Lincoln is not The Great Emancipator but The Great Centralizer.

In the eyes of many Americans, Lincoln is the most important american political figure because the War between the States so fundamentally transformed the nature of American government.

Lincoln thought of himself as the heir to the Hamiltonian political tradition, which sought a much more centralized government, one that would plan economic development with corporate subsidies, financed by protectionist tariffs and printing the money by the central government.

This agenda achieved little political success during the first seventy years of the nation’s existence, but was fully implemented during the first two years of the Lincoln administration.

Before the War, government in America was limited, highly decentralized, and worked for the defense of individual liberties. The War created the highly centralized state Americans labor under today.

The Constitution stood in the way of Lincoln’s political ambitions. Lincoln’s illegal acts are precedents that did irreparable harm to constitutional liberty in America:

  1. He launched a military invasion without the consent of congress.
  2. Suspended Habeas Corpus; imprisoning thousands of northern citizens without trial for merely opposing his policies.
  3. Censored all telegraph communication.
  4. Imprisoned dozens of opposition newspaper publishers.
  5. Nationalized railroads.
  6. Used federal troops to interfere with elections.
  7. Confiscated firearms.
  8. Deported an opposition member of congress, Clement L. Villandigham after he opposed Lincoln’s tax proposal.
  9. Destroyed the idea of the Union as a voluntary association of states.

Lincoln was not a champion of equality

  1. Between 1854 and 1860 On at least fourteen occasions Lincoln said unambiguously that he believed that the negro race was inferior to the white race.
  2. Lincoln was a lawyer who in 23 years of litigation never defended a runaway slave, but defended slaveowners.
  3. Lincoln met in the White House with freed black leaders and implored them to lead a colonization movement back to africa, and developed plans to send every last black person to Africa, Haiti, and Central America.
  4. In his famous Cooper Union speech of 1860, he advocated the peaceful deportation of blacks.

Dozens of countries ended slavery peacefully during the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries but only the United States had warfare associated with emancipation. There was violence during the abolition in some other countries as Colombia and Venezuela, where the emancipation became an instrument of the revolutionaries who sought state power.

In virtually every other country there was some form of compensated emancipation, the cost of the War between states was approximately $6.6 billion the North’s share would have been more than enough to purchase the freedom of every slave (and give each one 40 acres of land and a mule).

Lincoln was a Mercantilist

Lincoln sugarcoated the centralization of governmental power by repeatedly referring to it as “Saving the Union” to install his combination of policies known as Mercantilism.

Mercantilism as defined by economist Murray Rothbard is:

A system of statism which employed economic fallacy; Special subsidies, monopolistic privilege, protectionist tariffs, to privilege groups favored by the state.

Consumers pay higher prices because of reduced competition and fewer choices.

National banking is part of the mercantilist agenda, if government simply print paper money in order to finance subsidies, the economic cost becomes the inflation.

It was mercantilism, the very system that Adam Smith railed against in his epic defense of capitalism, “The Wealth of Nations”

Karl Marx himself wrote Lincoln in 1964:

Sir: We congratulate the American people upon your re-election by a large majority.


Get all the details of the real Lincoln in this two books by Thomas J. DiLorenzo.:

The Real Lincoln, A New Look at Abraham Lincoln, His Agenda and an Unnecessary War.

Lincoln Unmasked: What You’re Not Supposed to Know About Dishonest Abe


Why do trains in America function so different from trains in Europe?

Unfortunately, most people mistakenly think the problem is that “trains in America function so badly.”
In fact, America has the most efficient rail system in the world. It is European trains that function badly.

American railroads are private and based on the profit motive they operate as efficiently as possible. European railroads are public and based on the political motive they operate as visibly as possible. Passenger trains are more visible to the public than freight trains (which are almost invisible to people who see them only as obstacles), so European politicians give their constituents subsidized trains rather than an efficient rail system.

Read the article by Randal O’Toole

Pew Research Study in freight transportation

European comission: panorama of transport

Europeans don’t ride transit either

Randal O’Toole

Jefferson Vs Hamilton

In the 1790’s the Republicans, led by Thomas Jefferson, and the Federalists, led by Alexander Hamilton were the first political parties in the Western world.

Unlike loose political groupings in the British House of Commons or in the American colonies before the Revolution, both had reasonably consistent and principled platforms, relatively stable popular followings, and continuing organizations.

Their conflict was about the nature of the federal government. Should the central government be dominant or the state’s government. This are their basic views:

Hamilton and the federalists believed in a strong central government.
Jefferson and the republicans believed in states rights and a limited central government.

Hamilton and the federalists feared anarchy.
Jefferson and the republicans feared tyrannical government.

Hamilton and the federalists believed in loose, elastic  interpretable construction of the constitution that errs on the side of giving powers to the central government.
Jefferson and the republicans believed in a strict construction of the constitution where the constitution expressly enumerated all the powers belonging to the federal government and reserved all other powers to the states.

Support base
Hamilton and the federalists support base was urban.
Jefferson and the republicans support base was rural.

Government involvement in economy
Hamilton and the federalists believed that the government SHOULD be involved in the economy to help with economic development, the central government will be the hand ruling the economy.
Jefferson and the republicans believed that the government SHOULD NOT be involved in the economy (laissez Faire) they believed in Adam Smith’s invisible hand ruling the economy.

National Bank
Hamilton and the federalists: YES 
Jefferson and the republicans: NO

Hamilton and the federalists believed in tariffs to protect local manufacturers.
Jefferson and the republicans believed in eliminating tariffs to get cheaper goods.

Federal assumption of state war debts. 
Hamilton and the federalists believed in centralizing the debt.
Jefferson and the republicans believed in keeping the debt separated since some states had already paid theirs (Virginia, etc…)

Foreign policy
Hamilton and the federalists were anglophiles.
Jefferson and the republicans were francophiles (supported french revolution).

Pixel – The is the highest-rated smartphone camera DXOMARK have ever tested

DxO has extensively analyzed the image and video quality of over 9,000 cameras, lenses and mobile phones. These analyses are used by top camera manufacturersand media. DxOMark provides free public access to these results to help guide your camera and lens decisions

With an overall DxOMark Mobile score of 89, pixel, the latest Google smartphone, is the highest-rated smartphone camera we have ever tested. Its image quality scores are impressive across the board, but it is particularly strong in providing a very high level of detail from its 12.3MP camera


Iphone 7 review.


Fossil Fuels are Greening the Planet

The planet is getting greener as we speak…

And it is not in spite of the technological growth and the economic development the world is experiencing, it is because of it.

We are positive about this because of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index that is a measure of how green the land area of the planet is.

Between 1982 and 2011 20.5 % of the worlds vegetated area got greener and just 3% got browner.

Because of the burning of fossil fuels, we are making the planet greener.

It is an incredibly unwelcome discovery for the environmental movement.

While environmentalists often talk about how bad stuff like CO2 causes bad things to happen like global warming, it turns out that the plants aren’t complaining.

Talk by Matt Ridley: How Fossil Fuels are Greening the Planet.

The irrelevance of renewable energy

After 30 years of huge subsidies worldwide:

If we round up the contribution to the total energy consumption provided by eolic turbines (windmills) to the nearest integer: 0%

If we round up the contribution to the total energy consumption provided by photovoltaic panels to the nearest integer: 0%

From the International Energy Agency’s 2016 Key Renewables Trends, we can see that wind provided 0.46 per cent of global energy consumption in 2014, and solar and tide combined provided 0.35 per cent.

Renewable energy enthusiasts like to hide behind the statement that close to 14 per cent of the world’s energy is renewable, with the implication that this is wind and solar , “the unreliable renewables”  when in fact it is produced by “the reliable renewables”biomass – mainly wood burning. with their own set of problems.